DP Testimonials

Experiments, Relational Organizing
Featured Articles, Research

Why experiments still matter

In 2022, Deck conducted a large-scale paid relational field experiment in Pennsylvania with Relentless. We pursued this test because, to our knowledge, there was no experiment establishing a causal relationship between paid relational organizing and voter turnout. Instead, the effect of paid relational programs had been measured using observational causal inference. 

Experiments, Relational Organizing

Evaluating the effect of relational organizing

We worked with Relentless in 2022 to study the effect of paid relational outreach by randomly assigning Pennsylvania voters within an organizer’s social network to a control, relational outreach, or cold outreach condition. Cold outreach to relational networks outperformed relational organizing.

Hubble Voter File, Hubble UI, New Product Launch
Product Launch

Hubble Voter File

At Deck, we’ve spent years building massive, complex data pipelines to gather and process data on candidate filings, election results, campaign finance records, and more. So we know how painful it can be to work with this messy, hard-to-find data. We started solving this problem in early 2021 with our launch of Hubble, our data subscription service that gives you access to everything we know about campaigns and elections from 2008 to today.

Evaluation, Featured Articles

Evaluating our 2022 Forecasts

This cycle, significant polling bias against Democrats stoked fears of a red wave. But Deck’s forecasts not only much more accurately predicted the final results of elections, but most importantly was far less biased in doing so. Deck’s median absolute error (MAE) was 2.9pp for Democratic vote share across all state and federal races in November 2022. Deck’s forecast’s underpredicted Democratic vote share by an average of 1.04pp.

Data Infrastructure

Redistricting at Deck

Anyone working in politics right now knows redistricting has stalled campaigns this year. Between waiting for maps to be proposed, approved, challenged in court, voter file updates, and redraws, redistricting can feel like one endlessly drawn-out process.