Observation Deck

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Evaluating the effect of relational organizing

We worked with Relentless in 2022 to study the effect of paid relational outreach by randomly assigning Pennsylvania voters within an organizer’s social network to a control, relational outreach, or cold outreach condition. Cold outreach to relational networks outperformed relational organizing.

Product Launch

Hubble Voterfile

Data on campaigns and elections is hard to find and even harder to work with. We’re here to help. At Deck, we’ve spent years building massive, complex data pipelines to gather and process data on candidate filings, election results, campaign finance records, and...

Evaluation, Featured Articles

Evaluating our 2022 Forecasts

This cycle, significant polling bias against Democrats stoked fears of a red wave. But Deck’s forecasts not only much more accurately predicted the final results of elections, but most importantly was far less biased in doing so. Deck’s median absolute error (MAE) was 2.9pp for Democratic vote share across all state and federal races in November 2022. Deck’s forecast’s underpredicted Democratic vote share by an average of 1.04pp.

Data Infrastructure

Redistricting at Deck

Anyone working in politics right now knows redistricting has stalled campaigns this year. Between waiting for maps to be proposed, approved, challenged in court, voter file updates, and redraws, redistricting can feel like one endlessly drawn-out process.