In 2022, Deck conducted a large-scale paid relational field experiment in Pennsylvania with Relentless. We pursued this test because, to our knowledge, there was no experiment establishing a causal relationship between paid relational organizing and voter turnout. Instead, the effect of paid relational programs had been measured using observational causal inference.
We worked with Relentless in 2022 to study the effect of paid relational outreach by randomly assigning Pennsylvania voters within an organizer’s social network to a control, relational outreach, or cold outreach condition. Cold outreach to relational networks outperformed relational organizing.
At Deck, we’ve spent years building massive, complex data pipelines to gather and process data on candidate filings, election results, campaign finance records, and more. So we know how painful it can be to work with this messy, hard-to-find data. We started solving this problem in early 2021 with our launch of Hubble, our data subscription service that gives you access to everything we know about campaigns and elections from 2008 to today.
Welcome to Deck, a web-based tool that helps Democratic candidates identify voters most likely to support their campaigns. Deck creates "universes," or voter lists, which campaigns can customize. We also provide tools and training to help campaigns plan their voter outreach.
This cycle, significant polling bias against Democrats stoked fears of a red wave. But Deck’s forecasts not only much more accurately predicted the final results of elections, but most importantly was far less biased in doing so. Deck’s median absolute error (MAE) was 2.9pp for Democratic vote share across all state and federal races in November 2022. Deck’s forecast’s underpredicted Democratic vote share by an average of 1.04pp.