CG Kelly

Evaluation, Featured Articles

Evaluating our 2022 Forecasts

This cycle, significant polling bias against Democrats stoked fears of a red wave. But Deck’s forecasts not only much more accurately predicted the final results of elections, but most importantly was far less biased in doing so. Deck’s median absolute error (MAE) was 2.9pp for Democratic vote share across all state and federal races in November 2022. Deck’s forecast’s underpredicted Democratic vote share by an average of 1.04pp.

Data Infrastructure

Redistricting at Deck

Anyone working in politics right now knows redistricting has stalled campaigns this year. Between waiting for maps to be proposed, approved, challenged in court, voter file updates, and redraws, redistricting can feel like one endlessly drawn-out process.